Chapter 2
Growth and Capacity
INTRODUCTION
The General Plan Framework Element establishes a vision for the long-term
development and physical form and character of the City of Los Angeles.
This vision is expressed through a land use diagram (refer to Chapter 3)
that will be refined and implemented through amendments to the community
plans. The evolution of the City will take time to achieve due to the City's
size and rates of growth.
Realistically, the planning and funding of most infrastructure facilities
and public services that support growth must be for levels of growth that
can reasonably be expected to occur within a shorter time frame than could
be accommodated by the long-term vision. Many of the City's short-term capital
improvements are defined through a five-year plan that is updated annually
(the Capital Improvements Plan). Major improvements that serve large areas
of the City and/or are capital intensive, such as schools and fixed rail
transit facilities, are planned and funded over an extended period (10 years
or more). Some, such as wastewater treatment facilities, are planned to
accommodate growth for periods in excess of 50 years.
Consequently, the General Plan Framework Element plans for a level of population
and employment growth that may be reasonably anticipated in the near-term
as the basis of its policies and programs and for environmental review in
accordance with the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). The General
Plan Framework Element is population growth neutral: it is not the intent
of the Framework Element to cause any specific level of population growth
to occur. It is a plan to accommodate whatever growth does occur in the
future, which could include loss of population. The year 2010 is used as
the planning "horizon" to facilitate comparability with the regional
growth forecasts of the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG).
The SCAG population and household forecasts for the City of Los Angeles
for the year 2010 (as defined in June, 1993 - SCAG population forecasts
for the City are currently being revised. ) are used
in the Framework Element. Employment forecasts have been adjusted to maintain
the City's existing jobs-housing ratio, which is considered important in
maintaining the City's fiscal stability.
The estimates are not intended to represent maximum or minimum levels
of development to be permitted. Rather, they will be monitored annually
as a basis for the implementation of infrastructure and services to support
growth (as subsequently described). Based on the monitoring, the "horizon"
may be adjusted to reflect the actual levels of growth and their impacts
and demands on infrastructure and public services. At a minimum, the
"horizon"
must be reviewed and updated as the population and employment forecasts
and/or 2010 are approached. Adjustments of the population and employment
"horizon" may necessitate additional environmental review.
The "horizon" will guide the revision of all components of the
City's general plan (e.g., community plans and citywide elements) and guide
planning policy by the City's departments and commissions.
EXISTING GENERAL PLAN
Los Angeles' existing general plan is an end-state plan with no shorter
term population, housing and employment policy goals established prior to
the ultimate buildout of the Plan. The theoretical capacities of the existing
general plan at buildout, as shown in the Framework Element technical reports
and Environmental Impact Report, are adequate to accommodate growth to the
year 2010. While its housing capacity is more constrained than commercial
and industrial uses, the Plan's capacity for growth considerably exceeds
any realistic market requirements for the future. For example, there is
sufficient capacity for retail and office commercial uses for over 100 years
even at optimistic, pre-recession, market growth rates. At the same time,
the impact assessments of the current general plan indicate that if all
lands were to be developed with the uses at the maximum densities permitted,
an unrealistic jobs/housing relationship would result and supporting infrastructure
and public services would be unable to support this level of growth.
SCAG 2010 MARKET FORECAST
SCAG has forecasted population, household, and employment levels for the
year 2010 and provided this information to all jurisdictions in the region
for transportation planning applications. State and Federal regulations
require that local plans be consistent with the Regional Air Quality Plan
and the Regional Mobility Plan. The Framework Element is required to utilize
the population forecasts provided by SCAG. The Element reflects the SCAG
population and household forecasts as its planning horizon. It sets a higher
goal for employment -- to improve employment opportunities for City
residents and to help maintain a stable fiscal base which in turn supports
public services. Table 2-1 summarizes these numbers (estimates are rounded):
1990 |
SCAG 2010 Forecast |
Framework Plan | |
| Population | 3,485,399 |
4,306,500 |
4,.306,500 |
| Employment | 1,902,067 |
2,112,500 |
2,291,500 |
| Households | 1,299,963 |
1,566,000 |
1,566,000 |
SCAG's population forecast assumes that about two thirds of the increase
will be accounted for by natural increases from the population that already
resides in the City and that there will be long-term continuing growth of
the Southern California economy.
SCAG employment forecasts for the City are based on the continuation of
historic and recent growth trends. It is recognized, that in order to achieve
the higher employment levels adopted by the Framework Element the City cannot
adopt a business-as-usual approach but must devise an aggressive business
retention and outreach program to assure adequate job growth within the
City to maintain fiscal stability (refer to Chapter 7). Such a program must
be correlated with actions to mitigate the impacts of growth on the natural
environment, public infrastructure and services, and quality of life of
the City's residents. Without the mitigation of these impacts, businesses
will choose to locate in communities exhibiting a higher quality environment.
FRAMEWORK ELEMENT PLAN GROWTH DISTRIBUTION
The citywide population, employment, and household forecasts described in
the previous section have been distributed to City subregions and to community
plan areas within these subregions (see Table 2-2). These distributions
are the result of a methodology for disaggregating the citywide forecasts
provided by SCAG. The methodology reflects the Framework Element Long-Range
Land Use Diagram and an adjustment of historic growth trends and land values
in each plan area to account for the attraction of development to transit
stations and corridors and the districts, centers, and boulevards defined
by the Framework Element.
The population, employment, and housing distribution should be used to guide
future community plan amendments. It should be recognized, however, that
these figures are "best estimates" of citywide distributions.
They attempt to forecast how market trends will be impacted by the implementation
of the Framework Element. In terms of economic and market forces, these
City subregions function as realistic submarkets of the City, taking into
account forces that transcend community plan boundaries.
The Framework Element utilizes the following 2010 estimates:
| Subregion | Population Growth | % of City Population |
| 1. Northeast L.A. | 106,250 | 12.9 |
| 2. South L.A. | 106.595 | 13.0 |
| 3. Metro Center | 108,700 | 13.2 |
| 4. Southwest L.A. | 67,320 | 8.2 |
| 5. Central L.A. | 41,245 | 5.0 |
| 6. Southeast L.A. | 80,495 | 9.8 |
| 7. Northeast L.A. | 77,460 | 9.4 |
| 8. Northwest L.A. | 78,175 | 9.5 |
| 9. Southwest L.A. | 74,595 | 9.1 |
| 10. West L.A. | 35,340 | 4.3 |
| 11. Harbor | 44,990 | 5.5 |
| Citywide | 821,165 | 99.0 |
As implementation proceeds, the community plan population forecasts may
be revised based upon specific land use actions adopted through the community
plan update process. If one area cannot accommodate the forecasted population,
then other community plans within the same subregion should have sufficient
capacity to accommodate the subregional forecasts above. Forecasts may change
as SCAG updates its information or as new information is obtained from the
Framework Element's monitoring system.
RATES OF GROWTH
While the Framework Element has adopted a year 2010 planning horizon and
provided estimated population forecasts and anticipated citywide distributions,
it is not dependent upon these population levels or distributions for its
implementation. It does not mandate specific levels of growth for any specific
area (neither minimums nor caps). The population could grow more slowly
than currently anticipated as a result of economic trends, or again expand
rapidly as a result of changing immigration levels and birth rates. Population
loss could also occur. The Framework Element policies will not directly
prevent nor cause population growth to occur.
Population levels are dependent on a wide variety of factors, many of which
are totally unrelated to land use planning. Such variables as birth and
death rates, income, migration and immigration levels, Federal immigration
policies, natural disaster, economic trends and employment levels, etc.
all interact to determine whether population grows or declines.
Population levels, while partially related to building permit (development)
activity, are also not directly tied to the number of housing units available.
Population increases (or decreases) can occur during periods of slow or
even no growth in the number of available residential units. Similarly it
is possible, at least for short periods, to have stable or declining population
levels during periods of rapid housing unit construction. Over shorter time
periods, construction cycles and populations trends may not be consistent.
The Framework Element is designed to accommodate population growth largely
within centers, districts, and mixed-use boulevards whenever it eventually
occurs. Forecasted population levels may be reached by 2010 as forecasted,
or within a totally different time horizon for reasons unrelated to the
general plan.
GROWTH MONITORING
After the Framework Element is adopted, the City will establish a growth
monitoring program that will provide important information regarding the
accuracy of future growth estimates and the distribution of that new development
by community plan area. This monitoring program will annually document what
has actually happened to the City's population levels, housing construction,
employment levels, and the availability of public infrastructure and public
services. Information on environmental conditions will also be monitored
on a yearly basis to maintain and update an environmental database, which
will be used to facilitate but not replace, environmental review for subsequent
programs and projects in accordance with CEQA.
Information for the monitoring system will be taken from the best sources
available to the City, such as building permit information and other readily
available City data on business; Department of Water and Power and School
District information; County Assessor's files; commercially available development
data; State Employment Development Department statistics; Census Bureau;
SCAG data; University of California Los Angeles Business Forecast; and other
data as they may become available.
Infrastructure data will be developed from a cooperative effort among the
City departments responsible for infrastructure and public services. State
and regional agencies, such as the Los Angeles Unified School District and
the Metropolitian Transportation Authority are important to complete the
annual review of the City's growth and infrastructure.
Although one of the Framework Element's primary goals is to encourage new
development to locate in centers, districts and boulevards throughout the
City, market forces will ultimately determine the distribution of future
growth. Yearly monitoring will help evaluate whether the incentives that
are linked to targeted growth areas are working effectively with market
forces to attract new development.
The information from such a monitoring system will be presented to the City
Council in the form of an Annual Report on Growth and Infrastructure, which
can be used as the basis for revision of policies as needed to meet the
goals of the Framework Element. The status of environmental mitigation requirements
can also be determined and policies can be changed if desired results are
not being obtained. Information on amounts and location of growth can be
provided and policies influencing this growth can be revised if needed.
In this fashion, the Framework Element can be continually updated to meet
changing conditions, and the implementation mechanisms revised or altered
to achieve the desired goals. SCAG will require monitoring in all its subregions
in a similar manner.
FRAMEWORK ELEMENT THEORETICAL BUILDOUT
While the General Plan Framework Element is based on the forecasts defined
in Tables 2-1 and 2-2, development in accordance with the uses and densities
prescribed in the Long-Range Land Use Diagram could exceed them. This is
based on the assumption that all lands in the City would convert to the
maximum density allowed, referred to as the "Theoretical Buildout."
"Theoretical Buildout" will not happen. Experience indicates that
many properties would not be developed to their maximum permitted densities.
For example, fewer than five percent of the commercial properties currently
allowed to develop at a floor area ratio of 1.5:1 have been developed at
this intensity.
Click Here to View Table
2-2
Forecast Growth by Subregions and Community Plan Areas
Should population and employment growth be greater than the levels anticipated
by the Framework Element, policy stipulates that studies be undertaken to
correlate with the necessary supporting capital, facility, or service improvements
and/or demand reduction programs. At the same time, the impacts of the additional
level of growth must be found to be consistent with the findings of the
Environmental Impact Report regarding their level of significance. Should
additional potential impacts be identified, these would be subject to further
environmental review in accordance with the CEQA. This would be facilitated
by the implementation of a program to monitor the characteristics and impacts
of growth and availability of infrastructure and public services (the "Monitoring
Program") and annual reporting of this information to the City Council
(the "Annual Report on Growth and Infrastructure") as a basis
for the planning and funding of necessary improvements.
HOUSING ELEMENT
The Housing Element is a portion of the general plan and as such, must
be consistent with the Framework Element. Further, the most recently adopted
Housing Element has identified the Framework Element as an implementation
mechanism for several of the programs that it contains. While the Housing
Element and the Framework Element are closely related, there are data references
within each that appear to be inconsistent. Most of the apparent inconsistency
is created by differing time horizons and methodological requirements within
the two documents.
Calculation of the number of housing units that could be developed in the
City as determined, separately, by the Housing Element and General Plan
Land Use Element (community plans) seems to create the most confusion. Housing
unit calculations from either the community plans or the Framework Element,
using general plan designations per CEQA requirements, assume that all residential
units are located on properties planned for residential or mixed-use developments
that integrate housing with commercial uses and that these properties are
built to their maximum capacity.
This is a theoretical "capacity" figure which overestimates the
realistic number of dwelling units that would likely be constructed. All
properties are assumed to be redeveloped to their maximum capacity despite
their current use or the economic feasibility of this occurring. As calculated
in the Framework Element, this estimate also does not consider limitations
imposed by the existing number of parcels and their irregular configurations.
Further, it assumes all residential uses on commercially zoned lands are
redeveloped to their planned, non-residential use. The Framework Element
housing capacity estimate is considered a "worst-case" impact
assessment for the purposes of CEQA, which means that it assumes land is
completely builtout to the fullest extent allowed by the zoning.
Within the Housing Element more precise calculations are required. The Housing
Element is concerned with the availability of sufficient parcels of land
(housing capacity) within the City with the appropriate current zoning to
meet the City's housing needs, including its share of regional housing needs,
over the next five years. Residential units currently on land not planned
for residential use are not excluded. Because of Los Angeles' size and the
lack of detailed land use and zoning information for every parcel, complex
estimating methodologies must be devised and utilized to produce the required
capacity estimates incorporating information on parcelization, zoning, and
realistic (economically feasible) buildout.
The Housing Element estimates are produced for a specific purpose with detailed
requirements and will not be comparable to Framework housing unit
theoretical buildout calculations. However, they are not incompatible
with these Framework calculations. Because of the additional restrictions
on Housing Element housing capacity data (except for residential units on
non-residential parcels), the "housing capacity" estimate in the
Housing Element is lower than that found in the Framework Element. The housing
capacity numbers will change as the Housing Element is updated.
The 1993 Housing Element distributed the Regional Housing Needs Assessment
allocation, produced by SCAG for the City of Los Angeles, into income categories
and divided these allocations further by subregions of the City based
solely on the relative size of each subregion. The Framework Element
produced employment and income forecasts for each community plan area for
the year 2010 as well as housing unit forecasts by rent and price level,
and from this derived housing affordability levels by community plan area.
Comparison between market trend data for 2010 and Framework Element impacts
for 2010 were also calculated. Impacts of other policy actions on housing
affordability can be examined through varying inputs to the Framework Element
economic impact and forecast model. In combination with the policies in
the Housing Chapter of the Framework Element, these distributions implement
the Fair Share Allocation program documented in the Housing Element.